National Debt

November 17 - On the blog "Capital Gains and Games," contributor Stan Collender imagines an alternative fiscal history in which the previous two presidential administrations had worked to pay off the national debt by the end of this decade:

"The bailouts we're implementing and talking about today would have been of far less concern than they are.  Indeed, the $2 trillion or so in additional debt the federal government is going to incur this year would likely have been welcomed by the bond market.  The additional interest payments that we're going to have to pay for decades would have been on top of an annual interest bill that by now would have been less than $100 billion a year and, therefore, not much of a concern."

"Today, sinking worldwide financial markets are keeping Treasuries afloat...This won't last for long. Neither will the good revenue fortune of the past two decades...With U.S. consumers dialing back in the face of a slumping economy, exports to the U.S. also will plummet, dramatically reducing foreign demand for Treasuries. In the long run, the story will be even worse. I won't recount the now-familiar tale of how runaway health care costs will push federal spending far beyond the limits of the current tax code...Bob Rubin used to warn that while there was no way to know when markets would fall out of love with U.S. debt, they inevitably would. And when they did, the plunge would be fast and ugly. That is what has happened to most every other borrower on the planet over the past year, and it is naïve to think U.S. Treasuries will somehow be immune. It is this risk, and not the vicissitudes of today's slumping economy, that may prove to be Barack Obama's biggest challenge."

October 31 - To help voters better understand the fiscal implications of the candidates' campaign proposals, CRFB released four reports this week:

• Guide to Social Security: The 2008 Presidential Election
• Guide to Stimulus Proposals: The 2008 Presidential Election
• Guide to Health Care: The 2008 Presidential Election
• Guide to Tax Policy: The 2008 Presidential Election

In addition, CRFB released a special health care update to its voter guide: "Promises, Promises: A Fiscal Voter Guide to the 2008 Election".